How the Iran–U.S. Conflict Is Reshaping Dry Bulk and Container Shipping

Published by Salvor Project | March 2026

The coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, have triggered one of the most severe maritime disruptions since the tanker wars of the 1980s. For shippers, freight forwarders, and logistics professionals, the implications are immediate, wide-ranging, and still unfolding. This article breaks down what is happening in dry bulk and container markets — and what it means for global trade.

The Strait of Hormuz: The World's Most Critical Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, is the single most important maritime corridor on earth. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids and 20% of global LNG supply transits the strait daily. Beyond energy, a 2025 UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report estimates that the strait facilitates 11% of total global maritime trade volume, with over 30 million TEUs of containerized port traffic passing through the vicinity annually.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, the IRGC (Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) declared the strait closed, and within days, vessel traffic dropped by approximately 80%. As of early March 2026, more than 150 ships — including oil tankers, container vessels, and LNG carriers — are anchored in surrounding waters, unable to proceed.

The Container Market: A Second Red Sea Shock

The conflict has dealt a devastating blow to hopes of restoring normalcy to container shipping in 2026. Following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea starting in late 2023, most major carriers had already rerouted east-west services around the Cape of Good Hope. Earlier this year, carriers including Maersk and CMA CGM had begun cautiously returning selected sailings via the Suez Canal — a trend that has now been completely reversed.

According to Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand, the U.S.-Israel military operation and Iran's retaliation have "shattered hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026." All major carriers — including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — have issued fresh suspensions of both Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz transits, rerouting services via Africa's southern tip once again.

Key ports in the region, such as **Jebel Ali** (UAE) and **Khor Fakkan**, which serve as major transshipment hubs for global trade networks, are now effectively cut off from normal operations. Maersk has suspended special cargo acceptance to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia until further notice.

Freight Rate Impact

Spot freight rates had been softening in early 2026. According to Xeneta data, rates from China to the U.S. East Coast and West Coast had fallen 32–35% since the start of the year, while rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean were down 23–33% compared to late 2025.

However, the conflict has reversed this trajectory. With Cape of Good Hope rerouting adding 10–14 days to voyage times and approximately $1 million in additional fuel costs per vessel, carriers have begun introducing emergency surcharges — including fuel surcharges and war-risk or "emergency conflict" surcharges — pushing rates higher across multiple trade lanes. Compared to pre-Red Sea crisis levels (December 2023), spot rates from China to North Europe and the Mediterranean remain elevated by 48% and 79%, respectively, and will likely climb further as capacity tightens.

Dry Bulk: Disruption Beyond Oil

The dry bulk sector is also feeling the pressure, though through indirect channels. Nitrogen fertilizer exports from the Gulf — critical for Northern Hemisphere spring planting — are now stranded due to the Hormuz closure. Prolonged disruption threatens shortages across South Asia and Latin America, with knock-on effects for agricultural commodity pricing globally. Construction materials, steel, and industrial inputs are also caught in the disruption, with the Jebel Ali Port — the world's largest man-made harbour — partially disrupted.

Air cargo has compounded the pressure. Closed airspaces across the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran have grounded flights from carriers including Emirates SkyCargo, FedEx, and KLM, stretching the capacity of overland and sea alternatives.

What Logistics Professionals Should Do Now

The situation remains fluid. Businesses with supply chains touching the Middle East, South Asia, or the Far East via the Gulf should take the following steps immediately:

- Review all pending bookings** to and from Gulf ports and assess alternative routings via the Cape of Good Hope.

- Expect longer lead times** of 10–14 additional days on affected lanes, and communicate proactively with customers.

- Monitor war-risk insurance costs**, which are rising sharply — with one major broker estimating increases of up to 100%.

- Engage your freight partner** to understand surcharge structures being applied by carriers, as these vary significantly by line.

At Salvor Project, we are actively monitoring developments and working with our carrier partners to provide clients with the most current routing guidance, rate intelligence, and contingency solutions.

*This article is based on information available as of March 5, 2026.

The situation is rapidly evolving. For the latest updates and bespoke advice, contact our operations team at info@salvorproject.com.*